Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
